'Seismic': Texas, Iowa shift to toss-up in tight Senate midterm races

Phillip M. Bailey, USA TODAYFri, August 21, 2026 at 2:11 PM UTC

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Democrats chances of overthrowing Republicans for control of the U.S. Senate this year improved greatly after a nonpartisan forecast rated two races in states President Donald Trump won as more competitive.

Citing polling and source discussions, the Cook Political Report changed its rating from "lean Republican" to "toss up" in Iowa and Texas, two reliably GOP-leaning states.

Democrats must hold their seats and flip at least four others to topple the Republican's 53-47 seat majority in the upper chamber of Congress. That prospect was considered unlikely last year given the Senate map required the minority caucus to win in multiple red states, but experts say the political environment has darkened for Trump and his allies considerably over the past several months.

"It's really seismic," Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors editor for the group, said in an interview. "These are not states that a year ago − even six months ago − I would have anticipated would have been in the toss-up column."

"But the reality is the polling and and talking to sources right now I believe that they are," she added. "That doesn't mean this is where they'll be on Election Day and we could, once spending begins in earnest especially post Labor Day, these could definitely shift back in Republicans' direction because at their heart, these are red leaning states."

It's been almost two decades since a Democrat has won a Senate race in Iowa, where the party is betting on former Paralympian Josh Turek, a state legislator and gold medalist, to outpace Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former TV anchor.

Various public polls this summer have shown the race to be close in a state that Trump won by about 13 percentage points in 2024. But Trump's approval rating have dropped in Iowa, stemming largely from the administration's tariffs and the Iran war contributing to high costs.

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The Democratic drought is longer in Texas, where they haven's won a Senate contest since 1988.

Political observers increasingly believe state Rep. James Talarico and his meteoric national profile can fuel an upset in Texas, where scandal-plagued Republican Ken Paxton, the state's attorney general, is fending off the newcomer.

An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll found Paxton at 47% compared to 46% for Talarico, with 5% still undecided and 2% supporting another candidate. Paxton has been trailing in most surveys over the past few weeks in the Lone Star State, which Trump won by roughly 14 percentage points just two years ago.

In another sign of how the race could be slipping out of the GOP's hands the Talarico campaign announced it had hired a former staffer for Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who lost to Paxton in the May primary after the president stunned many by endorsing the controversial attorney general.

"The bottom line is this race would not be competitive had Republicans nominated Cornyn instead," Taylor said. "This is really a headache of Republicans' own making, aided by President Trump."

The Cook Political Report also shifted both governor’s races toward the Democrats, moving Texas from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” and Iowa from toss-up  to “lean Democratic.”

Contributing: Stephen Gruber-Miller, Adam Powell

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 'Seismic': Texas, Iowa shift to toss-up in tight Senate midterm races

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