Poll finds Texas Senate race tied as Republicans lead race for governor
Poll finds Texas Senate race tied as Republicans lead race for governor
Mateo Rosiles, USA TODAY NETWORKThu, August 13, 2026 at 2:54 PM UTC
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Recent polling shows how complex the issues at hand are for the Republican and Democratic candidates vying in the state's U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.
A new poll from Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media, released on Aug. 13, shows that the Texas Senate race is a dead heat and that Republicans lead Democrats in the state's gubernatorial race — as the results depart from other recent polls, illustrating how much the races remain in flux
The Aug. 13 poll was conducted Aug. 9-10 among a sample of 1,000 likely Texas voters, with a 3% margin of error.
In the Texas Senate race, Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton edged Democratic state Rep. James Talarico 47% to 46% — a 1-point margin that falls well within the poll's margin of error, making it a statistical tie. The poll also showed 2% would vote for another person and 5% remain undecided.
“The race for U.S. Senate in Texas is sharply divided by age: voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, 53% to 38%, while those over 50 break for Paxton by 11 points, 53% to 42%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, meanwhile, led Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45% — a 4-percentage-point lead just outside the poll's 3% margin of error with 4% of voters remaining undecided.
Abbott holds a 46% job approval rating, while 49% disapprove of the governor, according to the poll.
Paxton, Talarico neck and neck in Texas Senate polls
For the most part, the Aug. 13 poll from Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media joins other recent polls showing the race is tied or that one candidate narrowly leads the other within the poll's margin of error.
A Texas Pulse/Texas A&M Bush School poll, released on Aug. 7, showed 47% of likely Texas voters plan to support Talarico, while 43% choose Paxton, a lead within the poll's 4.7-percentage-point margin of error.
Before that, an Aug. 4 poll from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center showed Talarico (47%) leading Paxton (45%) by 2 percentage points — within the poll's 2.83-percentage-point margin of error.
This comes after a Fox News poll, released July 30, showed Talarico leading Paxton by 3 percentage points within the poll's margin of error, 51% to 48%.
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The only poll to show a candidate truly leading outside the poll's margin of error is the Texas Public Opinion Research poll released on July 28, which showed Talarico leading Paxton by 5 percentage points, 45% to 40%. It is directed by Democratic strategist Luke Warford but the firm describes itself as nonpartisan
Abbott holds narrow lead over Hinojosa in governor's race
The Aug. 13 poll from Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media paints a more nuanced picture of the Texas gubernatorial race, coming after several recent polls showing that voters between the two candidates have consistently gone back and forth.
An Aug. 7 poll from Texas Pulse showed Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa by 1 percentage point — 46% to 45%. That is a 5-point shift from Texas Pulse's June poll, which showed Abbott at 49% and Hinojosa at 43%.
A poll released on Aug. 4 from Texas Southern University showed the gap in the race had widened, with Abbott (49%) leading Hinojosa (43%) by 6 percentage points, with 3% supporting Libertarian Pat Dixon and 5% undecided.
However, a July 28 poll from Texas Public Opinion Research showed Hinojosa trailing Republican Abbott by 3 percentage points.
Looking at June polling data, a June 30 New York Times poll showed Abbott leading Hinojosa 51% to 44%, and a June 22 University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed Abbott ahead, 47% to 40%, the same 7-point margin.
What are the top issues for Texans right now?
The poll showed that 30% of Texans care about the economy, followed by 19% who care about immigration and 14% who worry about threats to democracy, with 13% concerned about healthcare.
Breaking the issues down by political party, Republican voters find immigration the top issue (32%), while Democrats (33%) and independents (31%) cite the economy as their top issue.
All three find common ground, with 14% of each group citing threats to democracy as the top issue.
Finally, the poll also asked likely voters whether they support or oppose data centers being built in or near their community — 60% oppose them, 33% support them and 8% are neutral.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Poll finds Texas Senate race tied as Republicans lead race for governor
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