CFP rankings send Ohio State a brutal message: Lose again, you’re done

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Blake Toppmeyer, USA TODAYWed, November 4, 2026 at 2:57 AM UTC

Buckeyes, are your ears burning?

Because, the College Football Playoff committee is talking about you, and it’s nothing good.

Never mind Hunter Yurachek’s mealy-mouthed language about Ohio State, because the upshot of the playoff committee's initial rankings is unmistakable: Lose again, Buckeyes, and you’re out.

The proof is in the No. 12 ranking.

Can't argue with the committee on this one.

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The committee should not — and did not — ignore the truth that Ohio State (6-2) looked deeply damaged in its first full game playing without injured starting quarterback Julian Sayin. Combine backup-turned-starter Luke Fahey with a suddenly crumbling defense and a barrage of penalties, and the Buckeyes put their worst foot forward in a 30-18 loss to previously reeling Southern Cal.

So, despite Ohio State possessing a sturdy strength of schedule, the committee embraced reality. These are not the same Buckeyes who whipped Iowa, beat Indiana, and lost to Texas on the road by a single point.

“They didn't look like the same Ohio State team this past weekend against Southern Cal,” Yurachek, the playoff committee chairman, said on ESPN, “a Southern Cal team that defensively had not been very good to this point in the season.”

The Buckeyes control their path to the playoff, but that path demands a 4-0 November.

Want to know why Ohio State is ranked eight spots behind Indiana, despite beating the Hoosiers? I’ll tell you what Yurachek couldn’t quite put into words. The rankings separation isn’t because Ohio State is 6-2 and Indiana is 8-1. It’s because Sayin started Ohio State’s win against Indiana, and the committee doesn’t trust the Buckeyes with the three-star freshman Fahey taking the snaps.

The Buckeyes are out of chances for marquee victories, too. No. 23 Oregon is the only ranked opponent left.

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If the Buckeyes lose again with Fahey, that'll reaffirm what the committee already understands: It cannot justify putting three-loss Ohio State in the playoff, unless Sayin makes a miraculous recovery from his arm injury and is back on the field by Thanksgiving weekend.

Ohio State scheduled tough, and the committee offered some hints that it values strength of schedule. (How else to explain Alabama at No. 5, other than its strength of schedule and a dash of Script A bias? ) Because of Ohio State's schedule, under normal circumstances, it would join Texas as top contenders to become the playoff’s first 9-3 qualifiers, if that’s where this season goes. But, Sayin’s injury altered the script.

Florida State can tell ‘em all about how the new script goes.

Three years ago, the committee used quarterback Jordan Travis’ injury as justification to reject undefeated Florida State from the four-team playoff.

The playoff committee is not bound by precedent, nor is it stagnant. Committee membership turns over, and yet we detect some parallels between how a past committee treated FSU to how this committee will handle the Buckeyes.

Quarterback injuries matter, especially if the production reverses with the backup.

What other breadcrumbs did committee sprinkle in CFP rankings?

∎ The committee is not a believer in undefeated UCLA. The No. 8 Bruins might need to finish undefeated to qualify. Indiana got the benefit of the doubt in 2024 while finishing 11-1 without a signature win. IU’s lone regular-season loss that year came against eventual national champion Ohio State. So, Indiana nabbed a bid. UCLA can’t rely on getting the same treatment if it finishes 11-1.

∎ If No. 11 Notre Dame beats Miami, it should zoom up the rankings, considering the committee values the Hurricanes at No. 1. If the Irish lose, then it had better be a close loss, and Miami needs to keep winning. Otherwise, the Irish could join Ohio State as big brands in big trouble.

∎ No. 7 Texas probably can lose a third game and be OK, so long as the loss doesn’t come against woebegone Arkansas. Is the committee’s respect for Texas built around Bevo bias or being Arch junkies? Nope, it reflects Texas compiling an elite collection of victories, when you add up wins against Mississippi, Ohio State and Tennessee, all of which are ranked within the top 13.

∎ Other than some love for Miami and No. 3 Utah, which remain undefeated, the ACC and Big 12 got little respect in these rankings. The path to either becoming a multi-bid league narrowed, although No. 9 Brigham Young at least ranks ahead of Notre Dame. The Cougars would buoy the Big 12’s chances for two bids if they beat Utah in the Holy War. The ACC is in a world of hurt. Speaking of which …

∎ No. 16 Wake Forest has one loss, and it came against Miami. The Demon Deacons’ resume closely mirrors Notre Dame. That wasn't enough to move the needle. Wake Forest joins No. 10 Mississippi as candidates for the most underrated label.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Listen to his podcast, "College Football Unfiltered." Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: CFP rankings send Ohio State a brutal message: Lose again, you’re done

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